Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science policy processes, experience across IPBES assessments

Abstract

Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments

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